While the chances are slim, a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being rejected this month will most likely be due to the Securities and Exchange Commission wanting “more time” rather than a flat-out rejection, says Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. 

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Balchunas says while he and fellow ETF analyst James Seyffart continue to peg a 90% chance of approval by Jan. 10, they haven’t raised the odds past the number largely due to this concern.

“I would say if we don’t see it in the next two weeks, it’s more because they need more time.”

“We haven’t gone further than 90% because of the possibility [...] I don't think that we're going to see a full-out denial,” said Balchunas, noting that the 10% chance includes both scenarios.

New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023

However, Balchunas says the amount of time and effort put in by the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers means it's unlikely that a Bitcoin ETF would be rejected outright at the last moment.

“This would be the rug pull of the decade."

“Everybody put in a lot of work in this, especially over the holidays. Sadistic might not even be strong enough a word for it.”

Vetle Lunde, an analyst from crypto research firm K33 Research, offered a similar outlook to Balchunas but pinned the chances of an ETF rejection at just 5% in a Jan. 2 market report .

Meanwhile, Balchunas believes that should the SEC issue an outright denial, fund issuers might  follow in the footsteps of crypto asset manager Grayscale and launch separate lawsuits against the regulator.

“People have spent too much money and tried too hard to give up now. So yeah, it would not be over. I don’t even think there’d be a cooling-off period this time. I think there'd be hell,” said Balchunas.

Public comments have continued to be submitted to the SEC’s request for feedback on the filings, with two as recent as Jan. 2 requesting the ETFs be rejected outright.


The most recent letter claimed that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and ability to circumvent traditional financial channels could make it “attractive to authoritarian regimes looking to evade sanctions and exert greater control over their citizens.”