Over $12 million was placed on a Polygon-based decentralized predictions market to bet on whether the United States would approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund before mid-January.

The bets were conducted on Polymarket, a predictions market , showing a total of $12.6 million in wagers betting either “yes” or “no” to spot Bitcoin ETFs being approved before Jan. 15.

The bet began in early December and resolved to “yes” as of Jan. 10, when the SEC approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs .

gg

it's payday motherfuckers pic.twitter.com/QM9Df74fbG

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 10, 2024

However, some disgruntled losers that bet on “no” have been seen quibbling in the comments section about the terminology of the wager, claiming that the bet was still on because the SEC’s official statement referred to ETPs — exchange-traded products — not ETFs.

Polymarket previously stated that “the primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”

Prediction market activity has surged leading up to the highly anticipated SEC decision.

According to Dune Analytics , Polymarket did more volume than OpenSea on Jan. 10 with $5.7 million compared to $3.9 million for the NFT marketplace.

Polymarket punters gambled $12M on the outcome of spot Bitcoin ETFs image 0 Polymarket daily volume. Source: Dune Analytics

The prediction market also has a similar running bet on the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by May 31.

So far, just $4,155 has been wagered on the Ethereum ETF outcome, with “yes” votes leading by 75%, with the platform previously claiming “you simply aren’t bullish enough.”

you simply aren't bullish enough pic.twitter.com/QJjrfLiyet

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 10, 2024

Related: Crypto traders gamble $1.5M on Bitcoin ETF approval results

Prediction markets can be used to bet on anything from election results to sports outcomes to crypto prices. More than $5 million has already been wagered on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. election in November.

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