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BTC ended August down 8.6%. We started the month with the ‘BOJ crash’ and BTC was never able to recover above 65k. ETH performance in August is significantly poorer, down 22.2% in August on the back of alleged selling by Jump Trading.
What should we expect in September? Historically, September seasonality is bearish with 6 of the last 7 Septembers in the red and with an average return of- 4.5% (which would take us to ~55k if we see the same this month).
That doesn’t seem too drastic especially after a turbulent August. We expect BTC to find strong support around 54k which is the level it bounced from in July before touching 70k.
This week, we have Unemployment Claims on Thursday (5 Sep) and NFP on Friday (6 Sep). However, we are not expecting any fireworks especially with macro data having a decreasing impact on crypto prices over the past few weeks.
We expect the vol curve to steepen further as frontend vols drift lower in a sideways market. At the same time, more long Calls are being rolled further out till March for both BTC and ETH. In fact another 200x BTC-28MAR25-120k-C was bought today, increasing its OI to 2.1k. In spite of the lull, there is still strong evidence of structural bullishness in the medium-term.
Trade Idea
With interest rates heading downwards on impending rate cuts and basis yield on the lower end of the range, you can still generate a strong and stable yield with a CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Take advantage of lower spot to earn up to 23%pa.
BTC CFCC (8-Nov)
- Earn 23% pa weekly as long as spot price is above 53k.
- Strike: 50k
- Protection: 40k
- At expiry, only if spot price is below 40k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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