Bitcoin headed for breakout or breakdown? Analysts weigh in

Crypto analysts are tipping three major events in the coming weeks that could drive up the price of Bitcoin, depending on how the market reacts to them. 

For the last seven months, Bitcoin has traded in a downtrending range between $74,000 and $52,000 and investors have grown increasingly restless about whether or not BTC will breakout to the upside or if its price will continue to crumble. 

Market in ‘wait and see’ mode 

Coinstash co-founder Mena Theodorou told Cointelegraph that the next major move for Bitcoin will hinge on how the market responds to upcoming political and regulatory shifts in the United States during election season, as well as upcoming macroeconomic data. 

“Whether it’s a breakout or a dip will likely depend on the next major piece of news or market shift [...] for now, the market seems to be in a bit of a ‘wait and see’ mode.”

Interest rates and jobs data

eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert told Cointelegraph that he’s looking to the upcoming FOMC meeting on Sept. 18 as the next “big catalyst” for Bitcoin’s price action. 

The consensus among market participants is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will cut interest rates by up 0.525%, something Gilbert says is a major positive for risk assets like Bitcoin ( BTC ).

“The bottom line is that a rate cut is coming, but the focus is now on the size of that cut. US jobs data this week will be a key driver of the expectation and could see a move in crypto assets,” Gilbert said.  

Coinstash CEO Tina Wang told Cointelegraph that investors should keep an eye on upcoming US employment data, which is set to be released on Sept. 6. 

“The July unemployment rate came in higher than expected, raising concerns about a possible recession. The unemployment rate is famously known as a double-edged sword. On one hand, a higher-than-expected rate could signal a greater chance of recession, which isn’t great news,” she said.

“On the other hand, it could actually be positive for the market because it might give the Fed more reason to cut interest rates,” Wang added. 

Breaking “cluster of resistance”

In a Sept. 3 investment note viewed by Cointelegraph, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said Bitcoin will need a “sustained break” above the most recent $65,000 high to cement a proper reversal. 

If Bitcoin can break above this level, Sycamore says the asset will face a “cluster of resistance” between $70,000 and $74,000 before the market can flip to a positive bias. 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,140 and has posted a 40% from the beginning of this year. At the time of publication, BTC remains down 20% from its all-time high of $73,800 which it notched on March 14, per TradingView data . 

In the mid-term, Gilbert said investors should prepare for further volatility in September. Historically, September is the worst month for Bitcoin price action, with an average monthly return of -4.3% in the eleven years since 2013. 

“Global growth remains robust, US GDP was revised higher last week, US earnings growth reached double digits in Q2, and a rate cut all signal that the market has further legs. Yes, there are big risk events ahead, but there is reason to be positive,’ Gilbert added.