• The run-up to the bitcoin level in 2023 was mostly in anticipation of the ETF rather than in response to market penetration.
  • The current crypto market trends are still somewhat similar to the first steps of an earlier and previous cycle rather than a full bull run.
  • Interest rate fluctuation and quantitative easing are some of the macroeconomic factors that might propel the real bull run in Q4 2024.

Despite growing enthusiasm around Bitcoin in 2023 , many investors have voiced their frustrations, claiming that the anticipated bull run hasn’t lived up to expectations. While Bitcoin did experience an early surge, this upward movement appears to be an isolated event, disconnected from the larger cryptocurrency market. Experts believe that what has occurred so far is not indicative of a full-blown bull run. Instead, this year’s price activity mirrors small bullish corrections typical of bear markets.

Bitcoin’s Early Rally and the ETF Impact

When Bitcoin began rising in the early part of 2023, a lot of people thought that the bull market had already begun. When the first Bitcoin ETF was launched, there was a significant influx of funds and the price skyrocketed boosting the morale of traders. However, this was only one regional rally and did not represent the overall market movement. Thus, while the increase in Bitcoin’s value was notably steep, it was primarily associated with institutions’ anticipation of the ETF rather than general economic indicators.

What makes this cycle so tough for most people is that Bitcoin made everyone believe the bull run had started early.

In reality it didn't yet. The Bitcoin bull run started but not the crypto bull run yet.

2016 – 2020 – 2024 have never been truly spectacular.

Yet due to the… pic.twitter.com/Odlwpbf4WO

— Crypto Nova (@CryptoGirlNova) September 7, 2024

Consequently, many altcoins and other virtual currencies did not increase in value as Bitcoin did, which frustrated many traders. Current crypto market trends are similar to early 2016 and 2020 cycles, and traders tend to mistake Bitcoin rallies for a full bull run, meaning the market still requires stronger economic shifts.

What Could Trigger the Bull Run in Q4 2024?

Experts state that such assets as cryptocurrencies are sensitive to macroeconomic factors. Monetary policy which includes changes in the interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) exercised by the federal reserve has a crucial influence on the market sentiment. 

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So, if fresh capital injection and lower interest rates take place in the last quarter of 2024, most of them will say that would be proof that the bull market is actually on. When the economic situation becomes conducive to investing in higher risk profiles, Bitcoin is expected to move above its current levels with a more stable environment for altcoins.

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