U.S. Election Prediction: 3 Things that might happen to Crypto

With less than a month to go for the US elections, there is a lot of buzz around who will become the next president of the United States of America and how it will impact the crypto industry, especially the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. A lot has been on stake in this election as many analysts have termed that crypto voters might turn out to be the biggest catalyst this time.
While some analysts say the election result will not affect the price of Bitcoin since it did not falter in the last election, some other analysts say otherwise. 

There have been many other predictions regarding the result of US elections and its overall impact on the crypto industry in the U.S. and worldwide. In this article, we will understand why crypto remains as a focal point in this election and what are the top 3 predictions made by analysts.

Why are there many predictions related to crypto in this U.S. Election?

Bitcoin was introduced over three election cycles ago i.e. in 2009.  However, this will be the first US presidential election in which Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies more broadly) is considered as a major political factor . With Bitcoin prices being stable and organisations like BlackRock asserting that Bitcoin is this generation’s “store of value”, the economic winds have suddenly shifted in favour of the industry and those who have supported it, notwithstanding years of hardship in the bear market.

The Federal Reserve estimates that by 2024, the dollar will have only 3% of its initial purchasing power, which will force many developing economies to look at other currencies for trade. Additionally, there are worries that the current monetary policy choices being made to prevent recession may potentially cause the dollar to hyperinflate and cause an economic downturn. 

The economy has fluctuated in recent years, seeing periods of rapid expansion driven by weak monetary regulations and moments of near economic collapse increased by the looming debt crisis. This volatility has increased over the past few years due to the escalating global tensions and conflicts. 

Therefore, many investors, individuals, and countries have turned to Bitcoin since its inception as a means of combating economic instability. 

Today, America is thus faced with an unprecedented situation in which it must strike a balance between an asset that can alleviate many financial problems. The world’s leading economy in 25 years will mostly depend on how the election plays out on November 5, and how bitcoin is handled. 

3 things that would likely happen after the election

Kamala Harris’s victory Could Favor Bitcoin- and Trump could Benefit Ethereum 

When US interest rates are low and it is easy for funds to be obtained, there is usually an appreciation in the value of Bitcoin. A presidency of Harris would most probably pursue the already existing policies of monetary expansion and active government expenditure, which is likely to either cap or uplift the crypto market. 

On the flip side a Trump’s presidency might however foster a positive attitude to crypto enterprises within the US that may in turn translate to positive regulation and growth of DeFi. Such a scenario would be particularly advantageous to the Ethereum and other layer-1 projects which are the building blocks of so many DeFi platforms. To summarize, both scenarios could positively affect different segments of the crypto space, but in different ways.

Trump to make public a formal plan for Bitcoin and other Assets ahead of Election 

Harris has been relatively quiet about digital assets, making only passing references to them in the context of other new technologies. This apparent indifference indicates that her government does not plan to discuss crypto policy in detail.

Conversely, Trump has striven hard to win the “crypto vote.” He became the first serving president in history to appear at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in 2024 as he gave strong support for the future of Bitcoin in the country and pledged to safeguard it against any strong regulations, particularly from Senator Elizabeth Warren. Further than any other figure, Trump has founded an autonomous finance (DeFi) venture – World Liberty Financial, which takes the praise step further in pursuing active participation in the space.

Due to these circumstances, it is most probable that we will already see formal drafts of the Trump campaign’s policies regarding cryptocurrencies and other digital assets before the elections. These might design the future framework of crypto regulation in the United States.

Gary Gensler will be 100% out no matter the election outcome

SEC chairman Gary Gensler since he assumed that office has proved to be a divisive issue within the Crypto industry. His approach of treating regulation like enforcement has worked to some degree but has also fired back in courts. This has further worsened the already strained rapport between the SEC and the industry leading to anxiety of reinstating some flexibility.

The former president of the United States Donald Trump has promised to “fire” Gary Gensler if he wins the elections. In the history of SEC Chairs, they mostly resign or are appointed elsewhere as new administrations come in. It highlights the increasing political clout that policy on crypto currencies is acquiring.

And even in the event, the incumbent vice president Harris wins the elections, her government would most likely take the same approach in order to win over the cryptocurrency market. This indicates that no matter the outcome of the election, there will most likely be a change in the regulatory target concerning the utilisation of crypto currencies.

Conclusion

As tech mogul Elon Musk recently claimed in a Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania that this is the most important election in U.S. history, likewise, the entire crypto industry and millions of crypto lovers in U.S.A and everywhere are closely watching this contest playout. No matter who wins on November 4, we can say for sure that the coming days will be turbulent for the crypto industry.