Next week macro outlook: the Fed will release the Brown Book, rate cut expectations are beginning to falter multiple FOMC vote members to speak

On October 19, according to Gold Ten, the S&P 500 and gold prices both hit new highs this week, and the market's bets on a Fed rate cut remained steady compared to the previous week, with the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut by the Fed in November still expected to be about 92.3%, up from 89.5% last week. With the Fed's Brown Book release likely to be the most notable macro event next week, and many Fed policymakers set to speak, which could increase market volatility, here are the macro market highlights to watch in the new week:

Monday 20:55, 2026 FOMC Voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks and participates in a moderated Q&A session ahead of the 2024 Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association of America (SIFMA) Annual Conference;

Monday 22:00, U.S. monthly rate of the Conference Board Leading Indicators for September;

Tuesday at 01:00, remarks by 2026 FOMC Voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari;

Tuesday, 05:05, speech by 2025 FOMC Voter and Kansas Fed President Schmid on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy;

Tuesday at 22:00, 2026 FOMC Voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks at the 8th Annual FinTech Conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed;

Wednesday at 21:00, Fed Governor Bowman speaks at the 8th Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed;

Thursday 09:00, China's Swift RMB share of global payments in September

Thursday, 02:00, the Fed releases its Brown Book on economic conditions;

Thursday, 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week to October 19th;

At 20:45 on Thursday, 2024 FOMC Voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack gives welcoming remarks at an event;

At 21:45 on Thursday, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for October in the United States;

Thursday 23:00, 2025 FOMC Voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee gives welcoming remarks at an annual meeting;

On Friday at 22:00, 2026 FOMC Voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks.