Bitcoin will bounce back “above the macro trend,” but only in 2025, a new prediction says.

In his latest X content on Nov. 4, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, saw the US presidential election casting a two-month shadow over Bitcoin ( BTC ) price action.


Bitcoin will beat macro trend “regardless”

Bitcoin traders remain primed for volatility and surprise moves as US election day dawns, but some are already looking beyond the result.

For Alan, a Trump win would spark a “knee-jerk” reaction on BTC/USD, with the opposite happening if the Democrats hold onto power.

“Bitcoin will not make a new ATH before the votes are counted,” he concluded in one of four “assumptions” about short-term BTC price performance.

Alan noted that various support lines, including the April 2021 mid-cycle top and the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) were failing to become support, as was $69,000.

“Technical Support at the 50-Day MA is coming into focus with secondary support at the 21-Week MA, but the volatility could obliterate the technicals,” the post acknowledged.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/X

Moving forward, Bitcoin may have a longer-term headache due to geopolitical flux.

It may take until the new government is officially in power for the market to outperform again, which will occur in mid-January.

“Won’t get relief from this $hitstorm of politics induced anxiety, stress, chaos or market volatility until Inauguration Day, Jan 20th,” Alan concluded.

“Regardless of who wins Election2024 , by Q2 2025 Bitcoin will return to it's trajectory above the macro trend.”

BTC price trendline viewed as downside support

As Cointelegraph continues to report , market participants still see all-time highs coming for Bitcoin.

Related: US election vs. Fed rate cut — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Some forecasts predict a major price discovery event in the coming months, including a trip to $100,000 in early 2025 .

Last week, BTC/USD narrowly missed matching its current record set in March.

“If things start breaking down, don’t rule out the possibility of a trip to the 50-Week Moving Average and potentially the Macro Trend Line,” Material Indicators warned in its post.

The 50-week SMA currently sits at $59,200, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with 50SMA. Source: TradingView