Bitcoin Could Skip $100K Dip Due to Profit-Taking, Says Analyst PlanB

Crypto analyst PlanB suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may not experience a correction until it surpasses the $100,000 mark, citing a key metric that could impact price movement.

The pseudonymous trader stated that Bitcoin holders seem to be cashing out ahead of the potential six-figure threshold, which could prevent a dip once that level is reached.

Who sells bitcoin now?
Easy: sellers are profit-takers. On average November sellers sold at more than 60% profit (red) with a cost price of $55k. I guess people expect a dip at $100k and are front-running that expected $100k-dip. This might mean .. there won’t be a $100k-dip! pic.twitter.com/0FkFEQ1v5Y

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 15, 2024

According to PlanB, the current profit-taking activity from Bitcoin sellers, who are exiting with an average gain of over 60% at a cost price of around $55,000, suggests that people may be preemptively selling in anticipation of a pullback at $100,000. This behavior could actually avoid the expected correction, meaning the price might not dip at that level as many expect.

PlanB also highlights the importance of the realized return metric, which tracks the profit or loss on Bitcoin based on the last transaction price of each coin. Additionally, he points out that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, has not yet reached the peak levels seen in previous bull markets. This suggests that Bitcoin’s uptrend is likely to continue.

He further shared a chart showing the realized price metric, which reflects the average value of all coins in circulation at their last transaction price, and has historically served as support during past bull markets.

Color in this chart is RSI. RSI is 74 now (yellow/orange). Imagine what RSI 80+ (red) will be like!

2Y realized price (grey line) is increasing sharply, just like at the start of 2013, 2017, 2020/21 bull markets. 2Y RP is $60k now. In bull markets bitcoin never dips below 2Y RP pic.twitter.com/XuFKdw88KJ

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 15, 2024

The chart indicates that Bitcoin is currently holding above the two-year realized price level, which aligns with trends seen in previous cycles, such as those in 2013, 2017, and 2020/21. PlanB notes that the two-year realized price is currently around $60,000, and during bull runs, Bitcoin has typically never dropped below this level.