Bitget Daily Digest | Market funds propel existing coins, CMC Altcoin Season Index continues to rise
Market highlights
1. $Chillguy, a TikTok-themed coin, briefly surpassed a $500 million market cap. Meanwhile, AI memecoins and Desic concepts are back in focus, with coins like $FARTCOIN, $ZEROBRO, and $RIF showing notable gains. $BANANA, on the BSC chain, has also seen strong performance.
2. Existing coins lead market rally: Coins like $XRP, $ADA, and $MANA are driving the current market rally. The CMC Altcoin Season Index continues its upward trend, and Bitcoin's dominance stands at 58%. The market cap of stablecoins has surpassed $190 billion, marking a historic milestone.
3. VC shakeups and Musk-related buzz: ai16z has fully separated from AI Combinator amid ongoing case-sensitive debates, leading to capital outflows from $AI16Z and a market cap drop below $200 million. Meanwhile, speculation is high around Elon Musk's social media activity, with coins like $WOUL gaining traction. Musk has confirmed the imminent launch of remittance features on X.
4. Notable insights and commentary: Michael Saylor has hinted at increasing Bitcoin holdings, while Ordinals' founder has criticized Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions, calling them "castles in the air"—with the notable exception of the Lightning Network. Data also indicates significant capital inflow into the Bitcoin network, reflecting growing investor interest.
Market overview
1. BTC consolidates while existing coins drive gains: Bitcoin is consolidating at recent highs, while market gains are largely fueled by existing coins, with Desic concept coins standing out in particular .
2. Global market snapshot: The Dow Jones hit a new high last Friday. NVIDIA fell over 3%, while Tesla reached its highest price since early 2022. The Euro hit a two-year low.
3. Currently priced at 97,977 USDT, BTC faces significant liquidation risks. A 1000-point drop to around 96,977 USDT could lead to over $330 million in cumulative long position liquidations. Conversely, a rise to 98,977 USDT could trigger more than $664 million in cumulative short position liquidations. With short liquidation volumes far surpassing long positions, it's advisable to manage leverage carefully to avoid large-scale liquidations .
4. Over the past day, BTC experienced $3.58 billion in inflows and $3.75 billion in outflows, resulting in a net outflow of $170 million.
5. Over the past 24 hours, $ETH, $BTC, $DOGE, $SOL, and $XRP led in futures trading net outflows, signaling potential trading opportunities .
Highlights on X
1. Timo's insights on the sustainability of the memecoin bull market cycle
@Timo shares an in-depth analysis of the sustainability of the current memecoin bull market cycle, focusing on market dynamics and future trends. Key takeaways include:
Two prerequisites for sustaining the memecoin bull market
Macro factors: New BTC all-time highs and sustained market liquidity
On-ground facts:
BTC continues to set new records, approaching the $100,000 mark, strengthening the overall crypto market.
Increased issuance of stablecoins (i.e., USDT and USDC) and consistent net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are further fueling the market, especially with leveraged positions held by companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Wall Street's dual investments in equities and bonds are also driving Bitcoin's rally.
Narrative factors:
The market requires higher levels of liquidity, which could be supported by a U.S.-led Bitcoin reserve currency system that extends to European and Middle Eastern sovereign funds.
The dominance of U.S. capital in Bitcoin holdings adds credibility and strength to this narrative, in contrast to Ethereum's relative weakness, which is due to its concentrated domestic holdings.
Looking ahead, a "USD + BTC" dual-currency system may emerge, with the U.S. potentially prioritizing Bitcoin over gold for strategic purposes.
Why does liquidity overflow into the memecoin market?
Users' perspective:
Broad appeal & low barriers to entry: Memecoin projects attract a diverse audience due to their simplicity and accessibility, which lowers the barrier for new users.
Psychological appeal: Memecoins play on users' desires for quick wealth and instant gratification, similar to the high-risk, high-reward dynamics seen in places like Macau or Las Vegas.
Wealth potential:
Since Bitcoin's all-time highs, the memecoin market has been one of the quickest ways to generate wealth, drawing significant capital and attention.
Supported by a strong ecosystem:
Solana has emerged as the primary blockchain for memecoins, benefiting from its ties to Wall Street for deep market insights, and a strong technical ecosystem, including projects like PumpFun and Moonshot.
Sector rotation effect:
From the rise of public chain coins in 2017 to the DeFi boom in 2021, market trends have evolved. Now, memecoins have become the most attractive sector for the 2024–2025 cycle.
Memecoins continue to evolve with new narratives and mechanisms, though predicting the next breakout coin remains challenging.
Future potential of memecoins
Simplicity and accessibility: Memecoins have an edge over other crypto assets due to their straightforward design, which doesn't require complex technical narratives or valuation models. Their ease of entry and potential for quick profits appeal to a broad audience.
Community-driven ecosystem:
Memecoins thrive on community consensus, driving both ecosystem diffusion and growth. They represent a unique blend of financialization and faith, positioning them as a cornerstone of emerging economic models.
End of the memecoin bull market?
@Timo concludes that despite the cyclical nature of high-risk financial markets, the current memecoin bull run is far from over. There is still plenty of room for growth as new narratives and market dynamics continue to unfold.
X post: https://x.com/timotimoqi/status/1860249675808538659
2. @Unipcs's in-depth analysis of D.O.G.E. market performance and potential
@Unipcs provides an in-depth look at D.O.G.E (Department of Government Efficiency), combining insights from MetaMask data and on-chain activity. Key points include:
MetaMask ranking: D.O.G.E was ranked as the second most traded coin last week, just behind $PEPE and ahead of $SOL and $SHIB. This strong ranking reflects D.O.G.E's solid on-chain performance across MetaMask, which has over 30 million monthly active users.
Fundamentals over price volatility: Amidst high volatility and even stagnation in many coin prices, @Unipcs urges focusing on fundamentals rather than short-term price fluctuations, particularly for D.O.G.E. Key fundamentals for D.O.G.E include:
Narrative advantages:
Centered on the theme of government efficiency, D.O.G.E has gained attention from influential figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump. This recent trending memecoin narrative is expected to gain even more traction during Trump's potential future administration.
With Dogecoin (DOGE) at the heart of the narrative, it added $50 billion to its market cap in the past month. As a closely linked asset, D.O.G.E also exhibited remarkable growth potential.
On-chain data:
On-chain data shows strong user growth and active trading volume for D.O.G.E, signaling robust demand.
Active and sustained on-chain transaction volume indicates continued market demand, and as sellers retreat, this could drive future price surges.
Valuation and market potential:
With a market cap of just $200 million, D.O.G.E remains undervalued as a high-beta asset correlated with Dogecoin.
As the market increasingly focuses on Dogecoin, D.O.G.E's correlation and demand are expected to peak around Trump's inauguration, positioning D.O.G.E for potential significant growth.
D.O.G.E's return has exceeded 3000% in the past two months. While some early investors are naturally taking profits at this stage, on-chain data indicates that new users entering the market are absorbing the selling pressure. This is particularly notable as the total token supply from sellers remains limited.
Unipcs concludes that D.O.G.E's fundamentals and on-chain data remain strong. Short-term price fluctuations are a natural part of the growth process, paving the way for long-term value. For long-term investors, holding or buying dips may be a strategic move.
X post: https://x.com/theunipcs/status/1860435802498404527
3. Andrew Kang: Preliminary observations on the potential and current ecosystem of the DeSci sector
@Andrew Kang draws parallels between decentralized science (DeSci) and the DeFi ecosystem of 2019, emphasizing that while the current phase seems primitive and experimental, its potential is enormous. He notes that DeSci is undergoing continuous iterations and could eventually introduce radically different models and products.
He highlights that DeFi projects like Maker, Synthetix, and Aave in 2019 were in their early stages, characterized by small market capitalizations and immature frameworks. Over time, as these projects iterated and grew, they became foundational protocols in the crypto industry. Similarly, the DeSci sector, though still in its infancy, has the potential to incubate transformative, industry-defining innovations.
Noteworthy DeSci projects: BioProtocol, PumpDotScience, GLP1Science.
These projects represent experimental efforts exploring diverse directions within the DeSci ecosystem, helping to set a new paradigm for decentralized science.
Andrew also encourages the community to share more DeSci projects, highlighting DeSci as a burgeoning field with the potential to rival DeFi’s success.
X post: https://x.com/Rewkang/status/1860722553326850398
4. Alex Krüger: Prediction and analysis of the crypto market cycle
@Alex Krüger outlines a seven-stage prediction for the current crypto market cycle, combining historical patterns and market sentiment to explore future trends and changes:
Phase 1: Bitcoin leads the way
The cycle begins with BTC gaining dominance, drawing significant capital inflows.
Phase 2: Memecoins enter the boom
As Bitcoin-driven liquidity spreads, memecoins emerge as the next major focus in the market.
Stage 3: Altcoins take the baton
Altcoins rise in prominence, driving widespread market prosperity.
Phase 4: The frenzy continues after an initial pullback
Following a significant pullback (with Bitcoin potentially reaching $110,000–$120,000), market sentiment remains positive. The market frenzy is expected to persist through key events like Christmas or the presidential inauguration.
Phase 5: Continued gains with a slight decrease in popularity
A new uptrend emerges, though excitement tempers slightly as the market progresses into February or March.
Stage 6: Correction and pain
As March approaches, the tax filing season (with the April 15 deadline) prompts profit-taking to cover tax obligations, leading to market adjustments.
Phase 7: Recovery with diminished intensity
Following the correction, the market stabilizes but lacks the fervor seen earlier in the cycle.
Alex highlights that this trend closely mirrors market performance in 2021 and 2024. He suggests that a preemptive approach in February could be a strategic way to address the anticipated profit-taking peak around March.
He also mentions that crypto market participants have "painful memories" of historical volatility. This collective memory drives "self-fulfilling" market behaviors, as the market’s anticipation of certain events prompts collective actions that make those expectations a reality.
Alex's analysis provides investors with a structured framework for understanding the market, emphasizing the importance of historical patterns and market psychology in the crypto market.
X post: https://x.com/krugermacro/status/1860543189939290227
Institutional insights
1.The ETF Store: Solana ETF is expected to be approved by the end of 2025.
2.Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xONEXGRcBMU&ab_channel=AlphaFirst
3.CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin market has not yet formed a bubble, with a target price of $141,000.
Article: https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1860527797795717560
News updates
1. Australia seeks guidance from the OECD on crypto taxation policies.
2. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy‘s founder, hints at potentially increasing Bitcoin holdings.
3. U.S. Representative Mike Flood looks forward to collaborating with the next SEC chair to reverse anti-crypto banking policy SAB 121.
4. Following a settlement with the SEC, 99.7% of TUSD reserves remain backed by speculative assets.
5. The U.K. plans to announce crypto and stablecoin regulations in early 2025.
6. In fiscal year 2024, the SEC initiated 583 enforcement actions, securing a record $8.2 billion in financial remedies.
7. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill officially recognizing Bitcoin as a "store of value" asset.
Project updates
1. Starknet states that the integration phase of the first stage of STRK staking has now begun.
2. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, is in discussions with Tether to launch a $2 billion Bitcoin lending project.
3. Solana's daily average DEX trading volume exceeded $6 billion last week, capturing a 45% market share.
4. Jupiter: The first Jupuary vote opens on November 25, aiming for a 70% approval rate.
5. Elon Musk confirms that X will launch a remittance feature.
6. Movement Labs concludes its Parthenon testnet activities, with more updates coming soon.
7. pump.fun's cumulative revenue has reached nearly $230 million, with approximately 3.74 million tokens deployed.
8. Polyhedra's zkBridge will integrate with Solana to enable seamless cross-chain trading of memecoins and AI assets.
9. RushMeme becomes the first Telegram bot to support the DuckChain mainnet.
10. The UniSat Indexer on Fractal will stop recognizing "useless" BRC20 inscriptions.
Recommended reads
The bull market is here: 8 key trends to watch in DeFi
DeFi is evolving at an incredible pace, turning previously unimaginable financial tools into reality. From yield optimization to the tokenization of real-world assets, these innovations are reshaping the rules of finance. While some believe DeFi has plateaued, emerging trends indicate that the sector is far from reaching its peak, instead growing in both depth and diversity.
Link: https://www.bitgetapp.com/zh-CN/news/detail/12560604369266
The "crypto map" of Trump's new administration: A deep dive into key decision-makers' holdings and policies
This article examines the crypto holdings and policy stances of eight members of Trump’s new administration, including Vice President JD Vance and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While some members have direct investments in crypto assets, others signal support for the industry through policies and statements.
Link: https://www.bitgetapp.com/zh-CN/news/detail/12560604368438
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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