Macro Outlook for Next Week: No Suspense Over Possible Fed Rate Cut in December

After a series of mixed data releases this week, swap traders have reduced their bets on the path of the Federal Reserve's easing policy. The Dow Jones fell 1.82% for the week, while the S&P 500 index ended its three-week winning streak with a decline of 0.64%, and Nasdaq rose by 0.34%. Bitcoin has been rising for seven weeks in a row, marking its longest winning streak since 2021. The last important monetary policy week of 2024 will attract investors' attention.

According to statistics, at least 22 central banks accounting for two-fifths of the global economy will determine borrowing costs by next Friday's close. The results are likely to highlight that as policymakers weigh different risks over the next year, momentum towards easing policies now appears increasingly unbalanced. Here are key points markets will focus on in the new week:

Monday at 15:30 - Speech by European Central Bank President Lagarde;

Tuesday at 04:45 - Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem;

Thursday at 03:00 - Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision and summary economic projections;

Thursday at 03:30 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds press conference on monetary policy;

Thursday (exact time TBD) - Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision;

Thursday at14:30 – Press conference held by Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of Bank Of Japan regarding Monetary Policy; 

Thursday at21:30 – U.S third quarter actual GDP annualized quarterly rate revision value , U.S third quarter actual personal consumption expenditure quarterly initial value , U.S December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

It is worth mentioning that PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), which is preferred inflation indicator used by Fed would be announced next Friday . According to economists' predictions,the November PCE (excluding food and energy) could rise by only about .2 percent —the smallest increase in three months. The report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating economic resilience.