What Bitcoin’s Diminished VDD Multiple Implies for Its Future Pricing

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric indicates a significant shift in long-term holder behaviour.
• Stable daily active addresses and transaction volumes suggest a mature market phase.

Bitcoin’s VDD metric has entered a critical phase as the cryptocurrency holds its position above $105,000.

This on-chain indicator, combined with recent price action and network activity, offers important insights into the current market state and possible future movements.

VDD Multiple Analysis

The Bitcoin VDD Multiple chart indicates a significant shift from mid to low ranges in early 2025, with current readings in the lower band (<0.75). This move from higher multiples seen in April 2024 (>2.9) to present levels implies a significant change in behaviour of long-term holders.

The decline of the metric aligns with Bitcoin’s price stability above $100,000, suggesting reduced movement of older coins despite price appreciation.

Bitcoin’s Network Activity

The number of daily active addresses for Bitcoin has remained stable between 71,000 and 89,000 throughout January 2025, while transaction volumes display consistent baseline activity.

This stability in network metrics, along with the low VDD Multiple, suggests a mature market phase where long-term holders are exhibiting strong conviction despite price volatility.

The correlation between active addresses and transaction volumes has stayed tight, indicating organic network usage rather than speculative churning.

The technical structure of Bitcoin’s price action shows remarkable resilience, currently trading at $105,220.36 with a 1.42% increase.

The Moving Average (MA) cross between the 50-day (99,251.53) and 200-day (77,341.17) MA maintains a strong bullish structure, supporting the current price levels.

The current market structure, characterized by low VDD Multiples and sustained network activity, presents an intriguing divide.

While long-term Bitcoin holders show strong conviction through reduced coin movement, the steady increase in active addresses suggests continued market participation and potential new entrant interest.

Historical patterns suggest that periods of low Bitcoin VDD Multiples often precede significant price movements, particularly when accompanied by steady network activity and strong technical foundations.

This pattern of behaviour, combined with Bitcoin’s technical strength above $105,000, indicates a market potentially preparing for its next significant move.

The reduced volatility in older coins, as shown by the VDD metric, often precedes periods of increased market activity and price discovery.