How True Are Claims That There Will Never Be An Altcoin Season Again? Is The Chance Of A Big Bull Weak? Analyst Evaluated

Following significant market volatility, crypto analyst Simeon Koch has offered an in-depth analysis addressing widespread concerns about the potential for an Altcoin Season in 2025.

While influencers have previously hyped what was expected to be the most significant Altcoin Season ever, the recent sell-off has sparked a wave of fear, with some now predicting a prolonged bear market. However, Koch challenges three major myths surrounding the current altcoin landscape and explains why altcoins could still make significant gains.

One common argument against Altseason is that the market has reached oversaturation. With millions of new tokens flooding the ecosystem, especially through platforms like Solana’s Pump.fun, some believe that the available capital is too dispersed, making it impossible for altcoins to reach the previous levels of growth seen in 2017 and 2021.

Koch disputes this view by pointing to several key factors:

• Most new tokens are short-lived. Over 99% of these new altcoins are memecoin-based and become inactive quickly, meaning they do not absorb significant liquidity.
• The crypto market is bigger than ever. The market has grown 20x since 2017 and is almost three times its size at the beginning of 2021.
• Market dynamics are not only dependent on liquidity. In traditional finance, asset prices rise not only because of available capital, but also because of investor sentiment and speculation. Similar dynamics apply to crypto, where the expectation of future returns can drive prices up regardless of overall liquidity.
• Additionally, concerns that token unlocks will dilute the market are overblown. Koch notes that the token unlocks in 2025 are estimated at $75 billion, far lower than the $137 billion seen during the last major Altcoin Season in 2021.

Some skeptics argue that without expansionary monetary policy from central banks, a sustained altcoin rally is unlikely. Historically, Altcoin Seasons have coincided with periods when the U.S. Federal Reserve has injected liquidity into financial markets by expanding its balance sheet.

Koch acknowledges this correlation, but stresses that asset prices are driven not only by liquidity but also by market sentiment. He argues that:

• Markets respond not only to monetary policy changes but also to expectations. Historically, rallies have begun in anticipation of looser monetary conditions rather than in response to actual liquidity injections.
• Risk appetite and speculation are key. Even without direct Fed intervention, traders and individual investors can drive altcoin rallies through mass speculation.
• Capital sitting on the sidelines is waiting to come in. Many investors are holding onto cash and waiting for a signal to re-enter the market, meaning liquidity constraints may not be as severe as assumed.

While the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the US has poured billions of dollars into Bitcoin, it has also raised concerns that institutional money will bypass altcoins altogether. Since Bitcoin is more accessible than altcoins through ETFs, some argue that altcoins will struggle to attract significant capital inflows.

Koch challenges this belief, stating:

• Despite the ETF inflows, altcoins still made big gains. Solana and other major altcoins performed well despite Bitcoin’s dominance.
• Altcoin seasons are driven by retail investors, not institutions. Historically, retail investor speculation has been the primary catalyst for altcoin rallies.
• Market cycles follow historical patterns. Bitcoin has historically led a bull run before capital returned to altcoins. Koch believes this cycle is likely to repeat itself.

*This is not investment advice.