BTC Price Cycle Trend Aligns with Past Peaks, Suggesting Further Upside

Bitcoin’s long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss data shows that Bitcoin’s market structure is perfectly aligned with previous cycle tops. According to historical trends, BTC price usually goes through an entire cycle market and peaks simultaneously with previous bull market highs.

In past cycles, the NUPL metric, which measures how profitable long-term holders have been, has repeatedly seen almost the same levels of overvaluation just before significant corrections.

Glassnode data shows that in the past, Bitcoin’s NUPL has often predicted euphoric phases. These correlated with the cycle tops of June 2011, April 2013, November 2013, December 2017, and April 2021.

Once again, the metric held around 0.9 each time there was an overheated market. Massive long-term holder profits drive this. At first, the current reading indicated that Bitcoin is still insufficiently high to indicate that it has yet to top such things (on the market). This indicates further upside before a full market peak.

The chart shows Bitcoin’s price trend. It’s seen, BTC price sharp rallies happen when NUPL enters the overvaluation territory. A correction comes before the new high. That historical pattern tells us that the asset is not yet in the natural phase where cycle tops usually end. This coincides with the notion that the market may have room to grow.

Historical Patterns Suggest BTC Price May Still Reach a New Peak

First, we should analyze past cycles or the fact that Bitcoin has risen to new highs on all occasions before entering a prolonged bear market.

Observing the cycle top alignment in previous bull runs strongly indicates that, at least on the surface, Bitcoin is still in the growth trajectory. The market has not yet exhausted its bullish momentum. There is no overreached euphoric phase, as witnessed in the NUPL metric.

This view can be supported by the fact that Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2024 is structurally similar to 2017 and 2021. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at $96,387.71 and has a daily increase of 0.48%.

The market cap is $1.91 trillion, while the 24-hour trading volume increased by 35.60% to 38.5 billion. This illustrates solid selling power and increasing investor interest.

Bitcoin Price and Altcoin Market Outlook

In the one-hour timeframe, Bitcoin’s price action indicates a downward channel. It suggests a corrective phase followed by the recent breakout. The price traded within the descending channel (marked in green) for an extended period. It made lower highs and lower lows until it broke out of the resistance zone.

Following rallying from the channel’s lower boundary near $94,494, BTC/USD trades at $96,269. The breakout above the descending channel indicates a shift in momentum, suggesting that buyers regain control.

The next likely area of selling pressure for Bitcoin could be around $98,208. A move toward $99,019 can be expected if it stabilizes above the current level. What goes down is that support is established here at $95,200, and then a key level near $94,494 will be provided.

1-hour BTC/USD Chart | Source: TradingView

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 15.62, meaning the trend strength is weak. A positive sign, however, is the breakout above the descending channel, but follow-through buying is needed on the ADX to confirm a sustained uptrend. Bitcoin’s recent breakout from the descending channel is bullish, but the very low ADX suggests a weak current trend.

If BTC price can hold above $96,000, it will create bullish momentum toward $98,208. Although these rallies are maintained, failure to keep these gains may lead to another corrective decline toward $95,200.

Historically, both Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s cycle, and Altcoins continuously surged once Bitcoin’s cycle reached its peak liquidity phase. Assuming the current market trend fits the same pattern as the past, we would see significant altcoin rallies ahead of the price reaching its primary resistance levels.