FOMO BULL CLUBの‌価格FOMO

《 AI Agent 圣诞树的思考》 AI agent 估值走了一个过山车，后面路在何方？作为Web3 AI创业者和投资者，下面是个人的一些思考 - 为什么崩盘 - AI agent的估值逻辑 - AI agent 成功的应用 - AI Agent 面临的问题 - 后续展望 1. 为什么崩盘 AI agent 崩盘有2个触发因素，一个是trump的meme币把市场的流动性抽走了，trump发射当天很多人卖ai的币去梭哈$trump; 另外一个更重要的因素是低成本的deepseek的推出，让AI对算力的依赖度下降，带崩了英伟达，情绪也传导了其他AI公司股价和Web3 AI agent的币价，甚至对美国主导的科技创新也是一个打击，而币圈和美国（美股）是强相关的。 但是从长期看，底层算力成本的降低，对搭建AI agent是有很大好处的，比如现在开发AI应用，由于chatgpt成本问题，开发者只能减少调用次数，有了deepseek，成本问题就大大减轻。 2. AI Agent的估值逻辑 目前市值对AI agent 的估值 = （基本面 +叙事）* 市场情绪。 基本面就是项目现在的情况，比如现金流，活跃用户数，用户使用时间，推特热度等，而叙事是项目未来的想象力，如果现在基本面一般，但是叙事有前景，市场也会买单，这个和股票市场用户买入亏损但是有发展前景的股票1个道理。市场情绪波动很大，前一阵子市场fomo情绪严重，所以给了ai项目很多溢价；现在fud很严重，估值就严重缩水。 3. AI Agent 成功的应用 为什么重点关注AI agent 成功的应用，而不是AI的Infra？ 因为有了成功的应用，Infra 必然有价值；如果只看infra，没有成功的应用，business model是不成立的。 目前看@aixbt_agent 已经证明了ai agent的product market fit，通过LLM快速搭建1个比人类更厉害的加密KOL， kaito的mindshare里面aixbt_agent 长期在前3。 另外，@_kaitoai 虽然不是ai agent，但是也是web3 ai的成功应用，之前kaito做加密数据分析没有特别好的爆发点，但是通过yaps 一下子找到了product market fit， 通过LLM技术找到优质的KOL和内容，也可以帮助项目方做营销， 一些顶级项目比如@StoryProtocol @monad_xyz都和Kaito建立了合作。让项目方和用户同时来卷yaps，最终最大的受益方是Kaito。 4. AI Agent 面临的问题 第一个问题是市场情绪问题，这个时间可以修复；第二个是流动性问题，如果整个币圈的流动性出现问题，植根于币圈的AI Agent 肯定会受影响；第三个是pumpfun 发射的ai agent有很多盘子项目， 没有长期建设的计划，挤压了真正的长期builder的空间，有一定的劣币驱逐良币；第四是AI的语言能力很强，但是在真正的交易决策方面，没有突出的能力，甚至有时候可能会有幻觉造成的投资错误。 5. 后续展望 AI agent 短期看可能受制于上面的问题，但是长期看，有非常大的发展空间，这取决于AI本身技术的进步和在web3领域训练的时间和成本。@aixbt_agent 已经是成功的加密KOL，下一阶段就是DeFAI，不过现在还是早期。回想DeFi第一次提出是2018年夏天，而真正繁荣是2年后的DeFi Summer，或许DeFAI也需要这样的周期。 如果觉得上面的思考有价值，欢迎大家点赞，转发和留言。

Understanding FOMO in Crypto Trading Hey Bitget insights Family! Let's dive into the intriguing world of crypto trading psychology and uncover how market makers capitalize on our emotions. 🚀📉 FOMO, or the "Fear of Missing Out," is a powerful emotion that can lead traders to make impulsive decisions. Imagine anticipating a minor 5% dip in your portfolio, but instead, you're hit with a 10% or even 30% decline. The immediate reaction? Panic selling to minimize losses. This is where market makers step in, leveraging these emotional responses to their advantage. The Market Maker's Playbook Market makers are adept at reading the market's emotional temperature. When they sense widespread panic, they anticipate traders rushing to sell or even short the market, expecting further declines. In response, market makers might drive prices up to trigger stop-loss orders set by these traders, profiting from the ensuing volatility. Strategies to Outsmart FOMO Traps To navigate these emotional pitfalls: Stick to Your Plan: Develop a clear trading strategy with predefined entry and exit points. This discipline helps you stay grounded during market turbulence. Set Realistic Expectations: Acknowledge that not every trade will be profitable. Avoid chasing unrealistic gains driven by market hype. Practice Patience: Wait for setups that align with your strategy instead of reacting impulsively to market movements. Limit Social Media Exposure: While platforms can offer valuable insights, they can also amplify FOMO. Focus on data-driven analysis over hype. Final Thoughts Emotions like FOMO can cloud judgment and lead to costly mistakes. By recognizing these feelings and implementing disciplined strategies, you can make more informed decisions and protect your investments. Remember, the crypto market is volatile, and while there may be opportunities for gains, it's essential to stay vigilant and avoid emotional trading. Stay save, Bitget Insights Family! 🧠💡

The best investment you can make in crypto is in your education. Knowledge beats FOMO every time.

Analyst: FOMO sentiment has fully erupted, and 80% of short-term Bitcoin holders have returned to the profit range Data from Checkonchain, an on-chain Bitcoin analysis program, shows that 80% of short-term holders (STH) are back in profit after BTC rebounded above $100,000. Ea…

Unpopular opinion: You'll be happier avoiding memes but Twitter won't ever tell you that. No fomo, less scams, less screen time, less stress, and less decision fatigue. It hasn't felt like a bull run for most because you've gambled and lost on memes.