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Introduction: The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a highly contested and pivotal moment in American politics. Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, are locked in a tight race. National Polls: Recent national polls show Trump leading by a slim margin: 1. RealClearPolitics: Trump 47.8%, Harris 45.6% 2. FiveThirtyEight: Trump 48.1%, Harris 46.3% 3. Gallup: Trump 49%, Harris 46% State-by-State Analysis: Key battleground states will determine the election's outcome: 1. Arizona: Trump 50%, Harris 49% (Emerson College Poll) 2. Nevada: Harris 51%, Trump 48% (UNLV Lee Business School Poll) 3. North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 48% (High Point University Poll) 4. Pennsylvania: Harris 50%, Trump 47% (Franklin & Marshall College Poll) Swing Voter Analysis: Independents and moderates will play a crucial role: 1. Independent voters: Trump 44%, Harris 42% (Quinnipiac University Poll) 2. Moderate voters: Harris 48%, Trump 43% (Pew Research Center Poll) Demographic Analysis: Voting blocs will significantly impact the election: 1. Latino voters: Harris 58%, Trump 34% (Latino Decisions Poll) 2. African American voters: Harris 85%, Trump 10% (NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll) 3. Women voters: Harris 54%, Trump 42% (CNN/SSRS Poll) Economic and Policy Analysis: Voters' concerns about the economy 1. Economy: 62% of voters rate the economy as "fair" or "poor" (Gallup Poll) 2. Healthcare: 55% of voters prioritize healthcare as a key issue (Kaiser Family Foundation Poll) 3. Climate Change: 52% of voters consider climate change a critical issue (Pew Research Center Poll) Conclusion: The Trump-Harris presidential race is intensely competitive. While national polls show Trump leading, state-by-state analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. Swing voters, demographics, and policy issues will significantly influence the outcome. Disclaimer: Polling analysis is subject to uncertainty and fluctuations.

Markets Believe That Trump Will Win, Boosting Stocks and Bitcoin: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee $BTC Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says that financial markets are currently betting on a Donald Trump victory this November. In a new interview with CNBC, Lee says that markets believe that Trump’s odds of winning are higher than what the traditional polls show.To an extent, I think that the markets are believing Trump’s probabilities of winning are stronger than the what the polls are showing. But I think that when the market sort of becomes more convinced of that, I think you’ll see cyclical stocks do better, small caps, and Bitcoin do better because these are really clear policy differences.  But yes to me, I think over the last couple of days the market is betting on Trump’s odds being better than the polls.” According to Real Clear Politics, Democrat nominee Kamala Harris currently has a lead over Trump in the polls, based on an average of data from Rasmussen, Pew Research, Ipsos and others. Lee has previously said that lower rates from the Federal Reserve – which Trump has reportedly hinted support for – could be the catalyst that sends Bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000. “But if the Fed starts cutting, I think you’re going to see a move in Bitcoin that would correlate to what small caps would be doing as well, there’s a lot of things correlated to a Fed starting a cutting cycle… I think that $100,000 or even higher is possible. Bitcoin makes moves in very short periods of time. We have published previously, for many years showing that Bitcoin makes most of its gains in ten trading days if you look at percentage gains. So those ten days could all be in the second half of this year.”

*Why is BTC so popular?* Once dismissed as a fringe interest of tech evangelists, cryptocurrencies—particularly bitcoin—have skyrocketed to mainstream popularity and trillion dollar valuations. In November 2021, the price of bitcoin surged to more than $60,000 for the first time, though it has since fallen. As of mid-2023, an estimated 17 percent of U.S. adults polled by the Pew Research Center had invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrency. Different currencies have different appeals, but the popularity of cryptocurrencies largely stems from their decentralized nature: They can be transferred relatively quickly and anonymously, even across borders, without the need for a bank that could block the transaction or charge a fee. Dissidents in authoritarian countries have raised funds in bitcoin to circumvent state controls, including to avoid U.S. sanctions on Russia.